Prepare for the Worst
Michael Phelps Shows Why We Should Prepare for the Worst
Michael Phelps by Paolo Bona (Shutterstock)
It was the Beijing Olympics and Michael Phelps had a goal — to break Mark Spitz’s record of seven gold medals at one Olympics. He stepped onto the starting block for the 200-metre butterfly with three golds already in the bank. This was his event — he’d broken the world record for this race aged just 15 years and had continued to dominate this event.
The gun went off and he exploded off the blocks, but as he hit the water, things didn’t go to plan. His goggles started to leak. By the end of the first lap the goggles had filled with water and he was swimming blind.
That would have been disorienting and enough to derail most. Yet despite this, not only did he still manage to win his fourth gold for the Games, but he broke the world record again. How did he manage to do this when he couldn’t see?
He had not only envisioned this scenario, he’d prepared and practised for it. His coach Bob Bowman had him swimming with his goggles not fully on or no goggles. As well as practising this, he had a plan of what he would do — count his strokes. He knew how many it would take to get to the end of the pool and that’s what he did.
I was reminded of this story when listening to Dr Huberman’s podcast and it made this risk manager smile.
One thing that makes it possible to be an optimist is if you have a contingency plan for when all hell breaks loose.
Randy Pausch
Identify worst case
So how do we create that contingency plan? We start with worst case.
I spent decades in risk management, primarily in financial services. A key element in the risk management process is to identify what can go wrong. If a new product or system was being implemented, an assessment of what could go wrong takes place. Could laws and policies be broken, data lost, fraud take place, financial losses occur, etc?
It was this process I implemented when I went on my expedition down the Nile river. There was a long list of what could go wrong broken down into five categories:
Injury/illness e.g. broken bones, malaria
Animals e.g. hippo attack
People e.g. approvals withdrawn, arrest, theft
Environment e.g. storms, rapids
Equipment e.g. equipment failure, breakage
These were broken down into specific worst-case scenarios. It was a valuable process, creating boundaries of what I was getting into.
Manage worst case
When you have an idea of what can go wrong, like goggles filling with water, you look for ways to reduce the risk. Swimmers will put their goggle strap under the cap to reduce the risk of their goggles coming off (as well as reducing drag).
On my expedition, things like the risk of illnesses were reduced by having vaccinations or taking meds like malaria prophylaxis. Other actions included engaging a company to provide daily intelligence reports and someone I would check in with each day. They were also there to support me if anything untoward happened, such as being arrested. (And I was arrested in Burundi.)
When it comes to racing surf skis (a form sit on kayak), there’s a risk of falling in and on a windy day, my ski might get blown away. So I wear a leash to keep me connected to my ski. I take a phone in a waterproof pouch and I wear a life jacket.
Have plan B, plan C and maybe even plan D
You want to have a plan in place before hitting the obstacle. At that point, you don’t want to waste time working out a solution. Your mind is likely to not be as focused as it could be when the proverbial is hitting the fan.
It’s like the safety briefing on an aeroplane — they tell us to check where our nearest exits are in case of emergency during the taxiing toward the runway, not when the plane is plummeting toward the ground.
In Phelp’s case plan B was to count strokes so he’d know how far he had to go and when he’d reach the end to turn and finish.
On my expedition, I came to realise that the one certainty was that nothing would go exactly to plan. So plans B, C and D were regularly implemented. My plan B for something like malaria was to have the treatment drug for it in my extensive first aid kit.
Practice
Anyone working in a corporate/large building will have likely had to reluctantly tramp down the stairs as the disaster management plans are put into practice and the building goes through an annual evacuation drill.
I did courses before setting off on the expedition, including Swift Water Rescue Technician. There we learnt about what can go wrong in rapids and fast-moving water, how to respond and then we practised that again and again. That way it would be second nature should things go wrong.
Phelps practised his plan B and no doubt plenty of other possible scenarios.
When it comes to my surf ski racing, I practice remounting my ski in deep water should I fall in. In one race there were tricky conditions and I did fall in. It was difficult getting back in the ski, but if I hadn’t practised remounting, I would have likely panicked and as well as slowing me down, it could have put me in a dangerous situation.
How to implement this strategy
You don’t need to be an Olympic swimmer or adventurer to gain from planning for the worst. Whatever your goal, working out the potential obstacles and potholes ahead will increase your likelihood of reaching your objective. You’re not taken by surprise and you don’t waste time coming up with solutions at a critical moment.
Goggles fill with water — establish worst-case
What is your goal? Whether it’s a race, adventure, new business, change in career, change in diet, going hiking, or starting a new fitness/training regime, work out what might go wrong. Also, ask yourself what needs to go right and think about what might impact that. It’s another way of unpacking the possible obstacles ahead.
If your goal is setting up a business, you might consider possible issues with the supply chain or people not paying invoices on time. If it’s a race, it might be problems getting to the start or not having access to your usual hydration approach. If you’re hiking, it could be getting lost or getting injured.
2. Put the goggle strap under the cap — manage the risks
Establish ways to minimise the risk — you might vet your suppliers, plan your meals and remove temptations in the cupboards, get a training buddy/coach, get insurance, go on courses and develop required skills.
3. Counting strokes — develop plan B
Based on the worst-case scenarios come up with solutions and ways to respond. If your goal is improving your diet, it might be having some healthy meals in the freezer. To deal with supply chain issues, you could have alternative suppliers in place.
4. Swim without goggles — practice plan B
Not every plan B can or needs to be practised — reheating food from the freezer clearly doesn’t require practising. Establish those that you will benefit from getting used to, particularly those most likely to come between you and your objective and/or have a significant impact. Even more so if it will keep you safe.
I would visualise the best- and worst-case scenarios. Whether I get disqualified or my goggles fill up with water or I lose my goggles or I come in last, I’m ready for anything.
Michael Phelps
When we understand everything that can go wrong and have solutions to mitigate these scenarios we become more optimistic and likely to succeed. It also reduces stress and increases our confidence.
So what will you do if your goggles leak?
Sarah